- At the start of trading, gold futures posted modest gains as investors braced for several key global central bank meetings this week.
- After reaching a record high, the gold price failed to maintain its momentum, with traders anticipating what the US Federal Reserve might do about monetary policy.
According to gold trading platforms, the gold price has retreated to the support level of $2148 per ounce at the time of writing the analysis, and the highest resistance level this week was $2163 per ounce. Overall, gold prices have remained stable. The yellow metal is coming out of a weekly decline of about 1%, but it is still up more than 4% since the start of 2024 so far.
In the same performance, silver prices, the sister commodity to gold, remained above $25 per ounce. Overall, white metal enjoyed a weekly gain of 2% last week and is up more than 5% year-on-year.
The main event this week will be the Federal Reserve policy meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to keep US interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but it will be what officials say in the economic outlook summary. Investors have priced in fewer rate cuts this year and believe the Eccles Building will start the first cut at the FOMC meeting in June.
Overall, the US Treasury market is trading as if there will be no rate cuts this year, with the yield on the 10-year note rising to 4.3%. Moreover, the yield on the two-year note is around 4.72%, and the 30-year note is above 4.45%. As is known, the gold market is sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates because it can affect the opportunity cost of holding bullion that does not generate a return.
The shift in monetary sentiment has further supported the US dollar. According to trading, the US dollar index (DXY), a measure of the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, rose above the psychological level of 103.00. Since the start of 2024 so far, the DXY dollar index has risen by more than 2%. As is known, a stronger dollar is bad for dollar-denominated commodities because it makes them more expensive for foreign investors to buy.
Later this week, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will conclude their meetings. Tokyo is expected to abandon its cautious stance, while London is expected to keep interest rates unchanged.
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Will the gold price go down in the coming days?
In this regard, analysts believe that the gold price will await the US interest rate decision on Wednesday, but perhaps also the Bank of Japan's decision on the interest rate tonight. The decision could show that global inflation is rising, and it is clear that gold is a hedge against global inflation. Ultimately, the changes in the dot plot and Fed funds expectations will play a role in whether gold will resume and continue its upward trend or not.
Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:
We expect gold prices to remain neutral with a downward bias until reactions to global central bank announcements this week. Especially, the announcement from the US Federal Reserve, which will strongly impact the US dollar and consequently the gold market. So far, the overall trend for gold is upward, and there won't be a trend reversal without bears pushing prices down to support levels at $2110 and $2070 respectively. Shortly, we still prefer selling gold from its record highs without taking risks.
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