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USD/MXN Analysis: Bearish Range Still as Volatility Strikes Elsewhere

By Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci
By Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

The USD/MXN remains within the lower elements of its bearish range, but support levels have proven rather durable and this has taken place as the broad Forex market has seen volatility.

  • The USD/MXN is near the 16.74605 ratio as of this writing with typical quick hitting price changes being seen.
  • However the value of the USD/MXN continues to be exerted within the lower elements of its long-term price range.
  • The currency pair has been bouncing up against rather durable support levels and has even seen a flourish higher over the past week, but the Mexican Peso remains one of the strongest currencies versus the USD.

USD/MXN Analysis Today - 25/03: Bearish USD/MXN (Graph)

There is a speculative problem however for USD/MXN traders, and that is figuring out a way to take advantage of the rather sustained lower price range of the currency pair as it bounces along rather impressive support levels. The USD/MXN did trade near the 16.66540 mark last Wednesday, but this was actually above the low seen in the previous week when the currency pair traded near the 16.64810 ratio on the 14th of March.

Looking for Upside Action in the Lower Realms of the USD/MXN

Day traders have a tough task with the USD/MXN. Technical charts are an important part of the trading in the currency pair, this because when support levels are seriously challenged they tend to create momentary upswings in value. Instead of trying to anticipate a major breakthrough lower in the USD/MXN in the short term, speculators may be better off using support levels as a place to look for upside briefly while using realistic targets.

The Federal Reserve is causing many problems for global financial institutions regarding monetary policy outlook, but the USD/MXN while being part of the broad Forex market certainly has also seemingly taken on a life of its own. The USD/MXN did not spark a volatile run upwards late last week like many other major currency pairs did that are teamed against the USD.

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Short-Term Speculative Wagering in the USD/MXN

The rather choppy yet consistent results in the USD/MXN make it dangerous. Traders should remain on the outlook for the potential of volatility, because the currency pair is not immune to surges. Speculators in the short and near-term should be satisfied to try and wager on quick hitting technical bets, but they should keep in mind important data will come from the U.S again this week starting with tomorrow’s CB Consumer Confidence reading.

  • A price range between the 16.69100 and 16.76200 levels may dominate trading today, but strict risk management should be used.
  • The USD/MXN does not trade in a vacuum and U.S data this week will affect the currency pair.
  • The question for traders is if weaker than anticipated U.S data can make support levels vulnerable.
  • Would stronger than expected U.S data cause a break out upwards which could test higher values like last week’s high around the 16.95000 ratio, if GDP and inflation numbers later this week beat estimates?

USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 16.74910

Current Support: 16.73100

High Target: 16.78620

Low Target: 16.69600

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Robert Petrucci
About Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.
 

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