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BTC/USD Forecast: Grinds in Consolidation

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
  • Bitcoin initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Tuesday but did find a bit of buying pressure underneath.
  • I think we're at a point now where Bitcoin is trying to work off some of that massive froth that got us to where we are.
  • After all, there was a ton of money flowing into the ETF and it did end up causing roughly 92% in gains over the course of about six weeks.

For anything that is going to be difficult to maintain, even Bitcoin. With that being said, I think we are starting to carve out a well-defined consolidation range with the $60,000 level underneath being a significant support level, which is also buoyed by the 50-day EMA sitting just above it.

Resistance the Market is Fighting

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Above the current price action, we have the $74 level offering resistance, which extends to the $75,000 level. If we were to break above that area, then I think Bitcoin will eventually go looking to the $80,000 level and beyond. I think at this point in time, we are more likely to have a buy on the dip attitude in this market.

BTC/USD Forecast Today 10/4: Grinds in Consolidation (graph)

I say let it fall from here, I'll just buy it closer to the $65,000 region. Nonetheless, this is now an ETF, so it's going to start behaving like one. It doesn't matter what you think about spot bitcoin, what you think about the future of money, or anything like that. What matters is that the biggest player in the bitcoin market is suddenly becoming Wall Street, which means it'll behave like a Wall Street asset. With that being said, I remain bullish at the moment, but I also recognize that sooner or later, Wall Street will pull the rug out from everybody's feet. This is the nature of “mature markets” when there are a handful of people controlling things. Because of this, I would say there is a high likelihood that a lot of people will struggle adapting to the new reality in the markets. Make sure to pay close attention to the volatility, or perhaps even more importantly, the lack of if it comes to that in this market. Furthermore, there will have to be some use case scenario sooner or later as well.

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Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
 

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