Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 59,550.
- Add a stop-loss at 65,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 63,000 and a take-profit at 65,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 60,000.
Bitcoin price continued falling this week as most spot BTC ETFs saw outflows after halving. The BTC/USD pair dropped to a low of 62,500 on Tuesday morning, its lowest swing since April 19th. It has fallen by over 15% from its highest point this year, meaning that it has moved into a bear market.
Bitcoin’s sell-off has coincided with a retreat of the crypto fear and greed index, which has moved to the neutral point at 57. It was at the extreme greed zone of almost 90 a few weeks ago.
This price action is happening because Bitcoin lacks a clear catalyst since the halving event and the SEC has already approved a spot Bitcoin ETF. As such, traders are waiting for the next potential catalyst.
The next important event that will likely have an impact on the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will be the Federal Reserve decision. A dovish Fed will point to a potential Bitcoin comeback and vice versa.
BTC/USD daily chart analysis
Turning to the daily chart, we see that the BTC/USD pair formed a double-top pattern at 72,685. This pattern may also be seen to be a triple-top, which is usually a sign of a bearish reversal.
Meanwhile, the 25-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) have formed a bearish crossover pattern. In most cases, this pattern is one of the most bearish signs in the market.
Bitcoin has also formed the three black soldiers chart pattern that is characterized by three bearish candlesticks. Further, the pair is attempting to move below the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has continued falling and has moved below the neutral point of 50. On a positive side for Bitcoin, the RSI has formed a falling wedge pattern, which is a sign that it could rebound soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator has moved below the neutral point. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bearish, with the next point to watch being at 59,558, its lowest swing on April 17th. A break below that level will point to more downside.
The other scenario is where the pair bounces back and retests the crucial resistance point at 67,110, its highest point on April 23rd.
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