Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2545.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2450.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 1.2475 and a take-profit at 1.2400.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2550.
The GBP/USD pair wavered on Monday morning even as hedge funds and other speculators turned bearish on sterling. It also pulled back slightly after the mixed US GDP and PCE numbers and as traders waited for this week’s Fed decision. The pair was trading at 1.2500, a few points below last Friday’s high of 1.2540.
Hedge funds are bearish on sterling
The GBP/USD pair moved sideways after the latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report by the CFTC. In a statement, the agency said that speculators like hedge funds turned negative on sterling last week. The figure came in at minus 26.2k, its lowest level since December.
The negative report came at a time when investors were anticipating that the Bank of England (BoE) would start cutting interest rates earlier than the Federal Reserves. The hope is that the BoE will make its first move as soon as June if inflation continues falling.
The Fed, on the other hand, is expected to hold steady for longer since US inflation has remained stubbornly high. A report published on Friday revealed that the personal consumption expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose to 2.7% in March while the core PCE jumped to 2.8%.
These numbers mean that it is taking longer for the country’s inflation to drop to the Fed’s target of 2.0%. Besides, there are signs that energy prices are sitting at an elevated level, with data by AAA showing that the average gasoline price rose to $3.65.
Looking ahead, the next important GBP/USD news to watch will be the Federal Reserve decision and the US jobs numbers. The Fed is not expected to tweak its interest rates and quantitative easing policies this week.
However, this will be an important meeting since it will provide more information about when to expect the first cut. The US will also publish the latest nonfarm payroll (NFP) data on Friday.
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GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD pair was stuck in a tight range on Monday morning. It was trading at 1.2500, down from last week’s high of 1.2540. The 25-period and 50-period moving averages have made a bullish crossover pattern.
It has also moved slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level and 1.2520, its lowest swing in February. Most importantly, the pair has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, pointing to more upside in the coming days. If this happens, it will rise to the 50% retracement point at 1.2600.
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