- Gold continues to be very noisy as the month of April was very choppy.
- This does make a certain amount of sense considering that gold shot straight up in the air over the course of the last couple of months, and therefore I think we needed to spend a little bit of time breathing and perhaps even soaking in some of the momentum.
Because of this, I think the month of May will be very difficult. I don’t mean this in the sense that I think the month of May will be necessarily negative, just that the markets could see a little bit in the way of volatility that causes issues. Ultimately, in the short term I do think that anytime we get a significant pullback, there will be plenty of buyers willing to jump in and take advantage of this market. With that being said, gold is a market that has a lot of different things working for it at the same time and therefore I think you have to look at this through the prism of whether or not risk appetite is increasing or falling, as well as many other things.
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Looking at this chart, it’s obviously a bullish one, so at this point in time I remain very bullish on gold. That doesn’t mean that we will get a significant pullback, but I would probably keep an eye on this market as one that is a good way to play risk appetite. Furthermore, we also have to pay close attention to the interest rate markets, because they continue to see a lot of higher rates, and that has people a bit concerned. However, if we were to break down below there, then the $2200 level could be an area that I would become even more aggressive at. After all, that just means that gold is much cheaper. As far as buying at these high levels, then I think you have to be a little bit more cautious in the sense that we are a bit overstretched.
I suspect that most of this month will probably be about consolidation, but I also recognize that we will possibly break out to the upside or even downside, but either way the trend will remain the same. In other words, this is a “long only market” at the moment.
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