The USD/CAD has delivered a dynamic price range the past handful of days as financial institutions have sought equilibrium while economic data has remained challenging.
- The USD/CAD is trading near the 1.35630 juncture as of this writing. The currency pair has demonstrated rather volatile conditions the past handful of days as reactions to U.S jobs numbers last week and the search for a fair market price have caused rather large swings in value.
- The USD/CAD today will be hit by U.S inflation data and Bank of Canada considerations, so speculators will need to make sure they are planning their wagering tactics in advance.
On Thursday of last week the USD/CAD traded at a low of nearly 1.34785, but this bearish move was then hit by a stiff reversal higher which saw the 1.36470 ratio come into sight in the midst of a reaction to stronger than anticipated U.S Non-Farm Employment Change numbers. After the highs which hit values last seen in late November of 2023 were seen, the USD/CAD started to traverse lower. Going into last weekend the currency pair finished near the 1.35900 mark.
USD Centric but Bank of Canada Considerations Lurk
The USD/CAD did manage to see calmer trading yesterday and today a slight reversal lower has been thus far sustained, but speculative elements will again come into the USD/CAD today which is certain to cause the price range to widen again. Consumer Price Index inflation numbers will come from the U.S today, tomorrow Producer Price Index statistics will be published. Stronger than expected inflation results from the U.S may spark additional buying sentiment to flourish in the USD/CAD.
However, traders will also have to keep their eyes on the Bank of Canada today which will announce their Rate Statement and release their Monetary Policy Report. While no major changes are expected and the interest rate is anticipated to remain at 5.00%, traders will be wise to pay attention in case there are surprises. If none occur, the USD/CAD will immediately return to its USD centric characteristics and U.S inflation data considerations will be the major influence.
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Short-Term Lower Move in the USD/CAD
The large jump to highs not seen since last November were alarming in the USD/CAD, but the ability to turn downwards and continue to incrementally trade lower the past few days should be noted. Financial institutions may feel the USD/CAD is still in overbought territory, but they will remain cautious before the results from the CPI and PPI data are known today and tomorrow.
- Traders should use solid risk management because the calm price range of the USD/CAD seen the past twelve hours is going to disappear as U.S inflation data is published and the BoC speaks.
- Traders may be tempted to bet on weaker U.S inflation data inflation emerging, but they should remember surprises upwards have been rather consistent lately. The use of stop loss and take profit orders is highly encouraged for the USD/CAD in the near-term.
Canadian Dollar Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 1.35755
Current Support: 1.35580
High Target: 1.35965
Low Target: 1.35375
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