- The USD/JPY is trading near the 151.635 mark of this writing. The currency pair is occupying high water marks not seen since November.
- The move higher in the USD/JPY after touching a low in late December near the 140.175 vicinity is noteworthy, but the upwards direction has reflected the results seen in the broad Forex market too.
- However the reversal higher to the ratios being challenged now are also noteworthy because of the rather complex dynamics speculators face in the USD/JPY, which is one of the world’s most heavily traded currency pairs.
Yesterday’s high which came within sight of the 152.000 drew remarks from Japanese officials that intervention for the moment is not going to happen in the USD/JPY. However, traders with experience know enough to understand central bank philosophies can change quickly. Japanese data continues to show some inflation, which caused the Bank of Japan to implement an interest rate of 0.10%. However many financial institutions would have liked to have seen a larger increase, and the USD/JPY moved in a bullish manner after the rate hike.
Fed is Talking but its Actions Amount to Only Rhetoric for the Moment
While the Bank of Japan has been criticized by many for inaction over the past handful of years by those who are not fans of its negative interest rate policy that was practiced for almost a decade, the U.S Federal Reserve has many critics too. Inflation in the U.S has been sticky and while the Fed spoke about interest rate cuts for 2024 that suggested aggressive action this past December, the U.S central bank has politely backed away from this rhetoric the past couple of months. U.S jobs data will come tomorrow which will affect the USD/JPY rapidly.
While the USD/JPY trades at the upper elements of its highest values early today, traders are bracing for the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers which will be published tomorrow and cause certain volatility in the USD/JPY. If the numbers are weaker this may help fuel USD/JPY selling. However, U.S data the past couple of months have delivered surprises; stronger hiring statistics would cause momentary bedlam in the USD/JPY on Friday.
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Short-Term versus Long-Term Considerations in the USD/JPY
Bluntly speaking a weaker Japanese Yen helps the Japanese export community which is a large part of its economic power. The Bank of Japan may want to keep the USD/JPY at its higher levels (albeit in a potentially lower range around 141.000 to 148.000 if it had its favorite choice).
- Short-term traders who believe the USD/JPY is overbought and try to sell must be extremely careful. Timing a trend lower requires skill, but also an incredible amount of luck.
- Risk management needs to be practiced by all traders going into tomorrow’s U.S jobs data, because the USD/JPY will see the price range widen significantly as the data gets set to be published and afterwards.
USD/JPY Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 151.730
Current Support: 151.575
High Target: 151.905
Low Target: 151.399
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