USD/JPY Forecast: Watch Position Size

• The dollar has risen against the Japanese yen yet again during the Monday session, but that's not really a big surprise considering the interest rate differential.
• The 152 yen level above continues to be a massive barrier that the market does not look like it's going to be able to break through easily, but when it does, it's going to truly send this market straight up in the air.

This could kick off a massive “FOMO trade” that a lot of people will be inclined to jump into. This is a market that continues to see a lot of volatility, and therefore you have to be cautious about the position size, but this thing could run.

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At that point, I would anticipate that the US dollar would go looking to the 155 yen level rather quickly. You can think of this, for the most part, like a beach ball being held underwater, because once it breaks the surface, there should be a lot of inertia to propel the pair higher. Short-term pullbacks at this point in time continue to be buying opportunities because, there's no fundamental reason for this USD/JPY pair to fall anytime soon.

Interest Rate Differential Continues to Be the Driver

All of that being said and the fact that the interest rate differential gets you paid at the end of the day, you do need to be cognizant of the fact that the jobs report is on Friday. That normally has a major influence on this pair, so we could get a pullback due to that, but I would only be a buyer of that dip. The 150 yen level underneath looks to be a major short-term floor in the market, and the fact that the 50-day EMA is approaching that level also makes it very interesting. In general, I have no interest in shorting this pair, at least not any foreseeable future that I have plotted out. That doesn't mean that things can't change, but right now, with the Bank of Japan raising interest rates to just a paltry 0.1%, it's not quite enough to get people away from the carry trade.

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