- The British pound has fallen rather hard against the Swiss franc during early trading on Thursday as it seems like everybody is doing everything they can to panic in the early hours.
- That being said, the Swiss franc of course is considered to be a “safety currency”, so this might just end up being a temporary situation.
- Given enough time, I do believe that we eventually see a turnaround, but right now you have to be courageous enough to buy when the market is offering a bit of value.
Technical Analysis
This is a market that is very bullish over the last several months, despite the fact that it looks horrible on Thursday. We are approaching the 1.15 level, an area that of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and therefore I think a lot of people will be paying close attention to it. If it holds as support, this could end up being a great entry point, especially as the 50-Day EMA is starting to come back into the picture and offer potential value. With this being the case, I think you have to look at it through the prism of a market that just doesn’t know what it once did do in the short-term, but longer term is most certainly bullish.
If we hit the 1.15 level and bounce, then I think it’s a great entry point that people will be willing to take advantage of. However, if we break down below here, the next support level is the 50-Day exponential moving average, which is closer to the 1.1433 level, but is rising. After the recent breakout, we are essentially in a scenario where we are looking for some type of value to take advantage of, and that might be what we are seeing on Thursday.
Remember that you continue to get paid for the massive interest rate differential between the 2 economies, so therefore holding onto the GBP/CHF pair does pay you at the end of every day. I think that will continue to drive what institutional traders do when it comes to trading this market.
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