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NZD/USD Forecast: Struggles with Momentum

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
  • The New Zealand dollar has been very noisy during the trading session on Wednesday, initially breaking out to the outside and testing the 0.6150 level but has turned around to fall rather hard.
  • While the candlestick itself looks horrific.
  • The reality is we've only had about a 90 pip range for the day, so it's not as bad as it looks.

The 200-EMA Day Indicator

However, if we break back down below the 200 day EMA, it's very likely that this market will drop back down to the 0.60 level. There are a lot of questions right now about the global economy, and that, of course, has a certain amount of influence on what happens with the Kiwi dollar. So that's worth paying attention to. Nonetheless, I think NZD/USD is a market that will continue to be noisy more than anything else.

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You need to be very cautious about your position sizing. Your position size should be somewhat reasonable, but also big enough that you can take advantage of a relatively small area of influence. From the selloff that we had seen a couple of months ago. We are basically testing the area between the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, an area that quite often gets a lot of technical traders involved.

NZD/USD Forecast Today 23/5: Struggles with Momentum (graph)

Because of this, if we could break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, then I think we have a real shot at going all the way to the 0.6350 level. I think more than anything else, we're going to see choppy behavior, but we are at a major inflection point that's worth paying close attention to. Because of this, I think we can make a bigger move just waiting to happen and given enough time I think this could be an excellent place to get involved if we can get just a little bit of momentum in one direction or the other.

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Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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