USD/RUB Forecast: US Dollar Supported by Buyers

• The US dollar has been relatively quiet during the Thursday session against the Russian ruble, as we are at a major technical analysis point that a lot of traders will be paying close attention to.
• The 90 rubles level is an area that is obviously not only a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it is also an area that will attract a lot of attention due to a slew of different reasons.

Technical Analysis: This pair is still range bound

The 90 rubles level is an area that a lot of people have been paying close attention to over the last several months, as it has held true as support. Furthermore, we have the 200-Day EMA sitting right around the same area, but it is flat, so it’s not necessarily like it is going to get a bunch of trend traders involved. However, what it will do is attract a certain amount of algorithmic trading.

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It is also worth noting that over the last couple of days we have seen the USD/RUB pair making a significant attempt to break down, but the reality is that market participants continue to see plenty of value underneath that level, and therefore have jumped into pick up the greenback.

On the upside, the 50-Day Exponential moving average sits right around the 97.75 rubles level, and breaking above that will most certainly open up the possibility of a move back toward the 94 rubles level, an area that has been significant resistance over the last several months. I do believe that eventually the USD/RUB market will try to break to the upside, but I would not look for big moves. The alternate scenario of course is that we break down below the massive hammer that formed this past Monday, which would be a significant breakdown. In that environment, the market would very likely drop down to the 85 rubles level, although that is not necessarily very likely at this point from what I can see. Ultimately, I am slightly bullish, but I’m not expecting some type of massive move. This is a pair that typically grinds, and I think that will continue to be the case.

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