- Ahead of key US inflation data, the yen has fallen back to around 156 per dollar, and remains under pressure as investors look to Japan's Q1 GDP data this week.
- Last week, the Japanese currency lost nearly 2% even after the Bank of Japan's April/May policy meeting summary indicated that the board had noted upside risks to inflation and discussed scenarios that could warrant further rate hikes.
- Also, the report had highlighted yen weakness as a key driver of price increases, raising concerns from the central bank.
- However, the BOJ is expected to maintain its accommodative monetary conditions for now while assessing the outlook for economic activity and price pressures.
According to the platforms of Forex currency trading companies, The yen has now recouped about half of the gains it made earlier this month when it bounced up by as much as 5.2% from a low to above suspected government intervention, with BOJ data indicating that it spent around $60 billion defending the yen.
On another level, consumer inflation expectations in the United States of America for next year rose to 3.3% in April 2024, the highest level since November, from 3% in each of the previous four months. In addition, price expectations for next year rose in all areas, specifically gas (+0.3 percentage points to 4.8%), food (+0.2 percentage points to 5.3%), medical care (+0.6 percentage points to 8.7%), and university education (+0.6 percentage points to 8.7%). So far, +2.5 percentage points to 9.0% rent (+0.4 percentage points to 9.1%). Furthermore, the average house price growth forecast also rose to 3.3%, the highest level since July 2022, after remaining unchanged at 3% for seven consecutive months.
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Meanwhile, three-year inflation expectations fell to 2.8% from 2.9% but rose to 2.8% from 2.6% on the five-year horizon. Additionally, the median expected earnings growth for next year fell by 0.1 percentage point to 2.7%. also, the unemployment rate expectations rose by one percentage point to 37.2%.
USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:
The overall trend for the USD/JPY exchange rate remains bullish, and as mentioned before, it will continue as such until there is Japanese intervention in the forex markets to prevent further depreciation of the Japanese currency, which harms the Japanese economy. Based on the performance on the daily chart below, the nearest resistance levels for bull control could be 156.80 and 158.00, respectively. Clearly, breaking the latter level would pave the way for retesting the psychological resistance at 160.00. Especially, if US inflation figures this week come in higher than expected.
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