- The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday, but then turned around to show signs of exhaustion against the peso as we are essentially swimming upstream when it comes to the idea of interest rate differential.
- With this being the case, I do think you've got a situation where the market pays you to be short of this market, and therefore I think it continues to put a bit of pressure on the green back.
- However, if we get some type of problem with geopolitics or whether or not the economy is growing in the United States, ironically, it tends to favor the United States because Mexico is so heavily tied to the U S economy.
Things Could Have Changed in the Pair
However, things may be changing a bit in the sense that Mexico is now the world's largest exporter to the United States. It's no longer China. And as somebody who lives in the United States, I can tell you that trend is only going to get bigger. So, with that being the case, it looks like the Mexican peso may be a stronger currency longer term. But as things stand right now, we see a lot of support near the 16 pesos level, which obviously we aren't anywhere near at the moment. However, it is something to keep in mind when you look at the longer term trend.
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In the short term, I think the market rallying from here could run into the 50 day EMA as resistance, which is closer to the 16.8 level. And then after that, you have the 200 day EMA near 17.15. I think both of those could be scenarios where you fade signs of exhaustion longer term.
I don't really have a clear picture of what's going on, but I do recognize that we have been banging against this support level, and it should hold for quite some time. So, it's more of a fade the rally type of setup from everything I see.
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