Signals for the Lira Against the Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 32.15.
- Set a stop-loss order below 31.05.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 32.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order at 32.47.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 32.60.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 31.95.
This chart produced by the TradingView platform.
Turkish lira Analysis
Trading of the US dollar against the Turkish lira varied during Thursday's session. The pair maintained its trading within a limited range throughout the current month, after settling below the peak recorded last month at levels of 32.87 lira per dollar. Recently, Standard and Poor's agency published an evaluation of the Turkish economy, mentioning in the report that the Turkish government may support the stability of the lira while simultaneously working to curb inflation. Banking experts expect the dollar to rise against the lira to levels ranging between 34 to 35 lira per dollar by the end of 2024. Also, the report includes forecasts of the current account deficit to national income ratio falling below 2 percent.
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Meanwhile, investors followed statements from the Turkish Minister of Finance, Mohammed Şimşek, who stated that the government's goal is to reduce inflation to single digits by implementing regulations aimed at promoting tax fairness, such as exempting the minimum wage from tax and reducing the tax rate for lower income brackets while increasing it for higher brackets. Additionally, the government approved an increase in the corporate tax rate, concurrently setting a higher rate for banks and financial institutions.
In other news, a joint report issued by the International Monetary Fund and the World Gold Council revealed that the Turkish central bank topped global central banks in gold purchases during last March. Finally, the report disclosed that the Turkish central bank's gold purchases amounted to about 14 tons.
TRYUSD technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
On a technical level, the USD/TRY pair shows divergence, with the pair moving within a limited range since the beginning of the current month. Moreover, this indicates a shift in Favor of the lira or the occurrence of buying saturation for the pair, which failed to penetrate the peak recorded during the previous month.
Currently, the price is trading within a narrow price channel on the 240-minute timeframe, as illustrated in the chart. The pair is trading below resistance levels concentrated at 32.50 and 32.88 respectively, while the nearest support levels are at 32.13 and 32.00 respectively. At present, the price is above the 50 and 200 moving averages on the daily timeframe, while it moves around these same averages on the four-hour timeframe. Obviously, it’s indicating the divergence exhibited by the pair in the medium term. Ultimately, expectations for the Turkish lira's price include a decline in the pair if it remains within the price channel indicated.
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