The USD/ZAR has the potential to deliver important trading in the near-term, which will tell us a lot about current behavioral sentiment and outlook financial institutions have for South Africa.
- The USD/ZAR as of this writing in near the 18.39000 level as of this writing and speculators who want to dip their toes into the currency pair’s waters this morning need to be extremely careful.
- First of all because of the banking holidays in the U.K and U.S today, the broad Forex market will see a lack of substantial volume the remainder of the day.
- Secondly, the bid and ask ratios for the USD/ZAR will be wide the remainder of today because of the lack of large positions via absent global financial institutions, so fluctuations will be large and fast.
Traders more importantly also have to acknowledge South Africa’s national election is this Wednesday. Most polls indicate the African National Congress will get a large amount of votes, but they may have to choose a coalition member to effectively govern. Financial institutions have been rather calm regarding the USD/ZAR trading the past week, but the question is if this will continue on Tuesday and Thursday.
Test of Recent Lows was met by a Solid Reversal Upwards
Last week’s low near the 18.02488 marks on Tuesday and Wednesday were solid bearish results for the USD/ZAR, but the currency pair then saw a reversal upwards and a high of 18.50360 thereabouts develop on Friday. Before going into the weekend the USD/ZAR did produce a bit of a selloff again, which might have been helped by the weaker than expected Inflation Expectations report from the University of Michigan.
However, the downward thrust may have also been a sign financial institutions believe the USD/ZAR has the capability of correlating to anticipated weaker USD outlook which is being wagered upon seemingly across the broad Forex market. The USD/ZAR should be treated carefully by speculators who dare to wager on value in the short-term because volatility is a possibility before South African financial institutions shutter for the national election on Wednesday.
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Range Tests Should be the Expectation for the USD/ZAR
Because of the U.S Memorial Day holiday being observed trading in the USD/ZAR will be very light today and traders looking for technical perceptions should also expect the potential of sudden strong moves if a large trader enters an unbalanced position. Traders should also keep in mind that Thursday’s trading is likely to be rather choppy as financial institutions react to rumors which will be swirling about results of the South Africa vote.
- Also the U.S will release GDP numbers on Thursday which will add to the Forex show.
- Simply put, trading the USD/ZAR over the next four days will be rather eventful and see a mix of lighter volumes followed by nervous outlooks.
- This may lead some speculators to lean towards a more bullish USD/ZAR in the near-term if technical perceptions believe support levels are being tested.
USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 18.41100
Current Support: 18.38800
High Target: 18.46200
Low Target: 18.36150
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