My previous BTC/USD signal on 24th June was not triggered as there was no bullish price action at either of the support levels when they were first reached.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $60,632 or $58,309.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $61,180, $62,254, or $63,323.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast three days ago that Bitcoin had been moving lower within a medium-term bearish trend in an orderly way within a symmetrical price channel.
I thought it made sense to look for new short trades.
This was an excellent call as the price fell heavily over the day, reaching as low as $58,500 before rebounding at the end of the day.
The price then ran into a new resistance level at $62,245 which has sent the price lower again. The medium-term bearish trend continues, and the bearish price channel remains intact.
These are bearish signs, given a tailwind by the renewed strength in the US Dollar. Therefore, I only wish to look for short trades here.
Given the bouncy price action, I think trading bearish reversals from failed tests of resistance levels is the best entry method with which to open new short trades.
The resistance level at $62,245 looks especially attractive.
Having said that, it may be that if the price just breaks down convincingly below the big round number at $60,000 which is somewhat confluent with the support level at $61,180, we will then see the price fall again to the $58,500 area at least.
Concerning the US Dollar, there will be releases of Final GDP and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time, followed by Pending Home Sales at 3pm. There is nothing due regarding Bitcoin.
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