My previous BTC/USD signal on 10th June produced a very profitable short trade entry from the bearish rejection of the resistance level which I had identified at $69,827 when it was first reached. This would have been an excellent position trade as the bearish trend has continued.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75% per trade.
- Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $61,180 or $59,807.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $63,323 or $64,674.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis two weeks ago that the technical picture had become more of a simple rectangular consolidation pattern between $67,000 and approximately $72,000 which I thought would hold, although I saw short trades as likely to have more potential than long trades.
This was a good call for the day, as the price made a bearish reversal not far from the top of that range, then plunged all the way to the lower edge of the range. The range broke down the very next day, and ever since, Bitcoin has been moving lower within a medium-term bearish trend. The price chart below has an 18-day linear regression analysis applied to it, which shows that this downwards move has been moving in an orderly way within a symmetrical price channel.
This medium-term bearish trend is given a tailwind by a recovery and a more established trend by the US Dollar, which is the other side of this currency pair.
I see no reason to expect significantly higher prices, and it seems to make sense to respect the bearish trend by looking for new short trades. The resistance level at $63,263 looks likely to be strong, so another test and rejection of this level later today will probably be a good short trade entry signal.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either Bitcoin or the US Dollar.
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