- For the second day in a row, the EUR/USD price is moving higher, holding around 1.0744 at the time of writing.
- Clearly, the rebound came after two sessions of declines as investors assessed fresh economic data and monetary policy expectations ahead of the first round of voting in the French legislative elections on June 30.
On the economic calendar data front, the latest business survey from the German Ifo Institute revealed an unexpected decline in business sentiment for June. On the inflation front, preliminary data for major economies, including France, Spain and Italy, will be published this week.
Spanish annual inflation is expected to ease to 3.3% in June from 3.6% in May, while consumer prices in Italy are expected to rise 0.2% on the month, the same as in May. Politically, investors are concerned about the French parliamentary elections, with early elections for President Emmanuel Macron adding to the uncertainty. The outcome of the elections, whether in favour of Marine Le Pen's far-right party or the left-wing alliance, could have a significant impact on financial markets, especially if it results in major policy shifts.
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The question now is: What is the EUR/USD forecast for this week?
We believe there is room for a recovery in the near term, although it should be shallow as the euro is likely to remain under pressure ahead of the French elections. Moreover, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been recovering since the start of trading this week, and we are looking for near-term consolidation after five consecutive weekly losses. The recent losing streak indicates broader pressure on the exchange rate, which is why we view any periods of strength as short-lived, meaning that those considering buying the US dollar should be smart.
EUR/USD Technical analysis and forecast:
In fact, there could be some strength in the coming days, we believe. The Forex chart above shows the 100-day moving average at 1.0663, which could form the basis for a return to 1.08 in the immediate outlook. However, we must be cautious, as we will need to see two positive weekly closes before we can call for a return to the 2024 highs.
The overall trend remains down, with the potential for shallow rebounds.
The ongoing uncertainty over the French elections and the rise of far-right parties across Europe, not to mention the recent surge in crude oil prices, will continue to weigh on the euro, making the EUR/USD forecast today bearish in the short-term. Thanks to the renewed weakness in Eurozone data and uncertainty over the French elections, we would not be surprised if EUR/USD continues to trend lower in the short-term outlook. Now, it may establish a new ceiling below the 1.07 level. It has already successfully defended previously broken support levels such as 1.0750 and 1.0790. In contrast, the psychological support at 1.0500 will remain an important destination for further bear control of the trend.
Moving to the US, the ongoing rally in the stock market has proven to be a strong source of support for the US dollar as global investors look to gain exposure to this outperformance. Further gains in the stock market in the coming days and weeks could keep the dollar on the offensive, according to forecasters. Obviously, the main data release this week is the release of core personal consumption expenditures inflation on Friday, which is a key input into the Federal Reserve’s policymaking process.
Meanwhile, markets expect the Fed to cut rates later this year. If those expectations fade, the dollar could gain strength. Furthermore, the data needs to continue to beat expectations. With that in mind, core PCE is expected to come in at 0.1% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. May consensus was for a 0.1% month-on-month rise, down from 0.2%.
If it beats expectations, we expect the US dollar to end the week at a higher level, with the EUR/USD likely to end the week at its lowest level not seen since mid-April (1.06).
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