- At the start of this exciting trading week, the EUR/USD price tumbled with stronger losses amidst a bearish gap, reaching the support level of 1.0748, the lowest level for the currency pair in a month.
- Recently, its strongest losses came on the back of renewed political uncertainty after French President Emmanuel Macron called for early elections following a major loss to Marine Le Pen's National Rally party in the European elections on Sunday.
According to reliable trading platforms, the euro also remained under pressure from the rising US dollar. So far, strong US jobs data prompted traders to reduce their expectations for US rate cuts ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank made its first interest rate cut in five years last week, but adopted a cautious approach to further cuts. Officials acknowledged continued price pressures and expected inflation to exceed targets next year. European Central Bank President Lagarde stressed during the press conference following the decision that the central bank is not committed to a specific rate path and that future actions will depend on incoming data.
On the stock trading platforms front, European stock markets were headed for a lower open on Monday, as preliminary results from the European Parliament elections suggested that populist right-wing parties could shape European policies over the next five years. Also, French President Emmanuel Macron called for early parliamentary elections later this month after suffering a major blow in the EU vote.
Elsewhere, investors are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s decision on US interest rates and a key US inflation reading this week. Moreover, Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs data has dampened hopes for two rate cuts this year.
Furthermore, Euro Stoxx 50 futures were down 0.5% in pre-market trading.
Overall, economists are divided on how many US rate cuts Fed officials will signal for 2024 in their policy meeting this week, after recent inflation numbers rose. Policymakers are likely to backtrack on their long-held expectations of three rate cuts this year, but it's a close call on whether they will stick to two rate cuts or not. A majority of 41% of economists expect the "dot plot" to show two cuts, while 41% expect the projections to show just one cut or no cuts at all, according to a Bloomberg survey.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Based on the daily chart above, EUR/USD is on its strongest downward trajectory as long as it remains below the 1.0800 support level. As we mentioned earlier, If U.S. inflation figures come in stronger than expected this week and the Fed’s policy statement is more hawkish, a move toward the 1.0600 psychological support level is not ruled out as soon as possible. Which in turn will move the technical indicators towards strong oversold levels. Technically, the EUR/USD price may remain on its downward path until the markets and investors react to the announcement of US data and events.
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