- This week, all focus will be on the performance of the pound in the forex markets in the Bank of England announcement.
- Ahead of the event, the price of the pound against the US dollar, GBP/USD, settled down around the 1.2686 level at the beginning of trading this week.
- Its losses last week extended the support level of 1.2656, its lowest in a month in addition to European political concerns. UK data had a limited impact during the week, with no change in the UK GDP for April.
- The unemployment rate in the country rose to 4.4% in the three months to April from 4.3% previously, which is the highest rate since September 2021. Also, the inactivity rate rose to its highest level in nearly 10 years.
Furthermore, wage pressures remain high, with core wage growth remaining at 5.9% compared to expectations of 5.7%. On the other hand, analysts see that there will be a risk that the updated Monetary Policy Committee policy statement and data from the UK this week will encourage investors to bring forward their expectations for a rate cut.”
The Bank of England’s decision will be decisive in the medium term.
According to NatWest, “With the BoE pricing in just 40bps for the end of 24 versus NatWest economists’ view of 75bps, there is still scope for sterling to fall against the euro in the coming months.”
Regarding the general election, opinion polls have indicated further erosion in support for the Conservative Party with Labor expected to secure a very large majority. HSBC commented, “Some may think that the election will be positive for sterling. A Labor victory is the most likely outcome according to the latest opinion polls, suggesting the possibility of warmer relations between the UK and the EU and a stronger fiscal stimulus, thus boosting the outlook for sterling.
They added, “However, we believe that it is not that simple.” Sterling is still likely to be driven more by the Bank of England’s monetary policy expectations versus other central banks than the immediate aftermath of the upcoming election. Sterling remains beholden to interest rates and, in our view, looks very strong against both the US dollar and the euro, based on spreads respectively.”
According to stock trading platforms, according to the performance of US stocks, the S&P 500 ended its streak of four consecutive record closings on Friday, finishing slightly lower, the Dow Jones fell 57 points, while the Nasdaq added 0.1% to extend its record closing streak to 5. Overall, market sentiment was affected by the US consumer confidence index in Michigan unexpectedly falling to seven-month low and rising inflation expectations for the five-year period.
Most sectors were in the red, except for technology and communications services, which saw slight gains.
In corporate news, luxury retailer RH fell 17.2% after reporting a much larger-than-expected loss in the first quarter. Stellates shares fell 4.2% after the CEO’s comments about “arrogant” bug fixes in the U.S. that led to lower sales and inventory problems. In contrast, Adobe shares rose 14.5% after raising their full-year guidance, and Broadcom shares rose 3.3% to record their best week ever, jumping 23%. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.8%, the Nasdaq gained 3.6% and the S&P 500 gained 1.8%. The Dow Jones index fell by 0.6%
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Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:
According to the performance on the daily chart, the GBP/USD price is still on its downward path. Breaking the support level of 1.2600 will strengthen the bears' control over the general trend. Technical indicators will start giving oversold signals if the currency pair moves towards the support levels of 1.2560 and 1.2500 respectively. On the other hand, and in the same time frame, returning to the resistance level of 1.2775 will be important for the bulls' control over the trend again.
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