- GBP/USD has been trading in a consolidation pattern since the start of this week's trading, settling around 1.2785 at the time of writing.
- The pair made gains to the 1.2817 resistance level, the highest in over two and a half months, before settling back.
- Investors are awaiting the release of US jobs data, which will have a strong impact on the future of Fed policy.
What’s next for GBP/USD in the coming days?
GBP/USD remains one of the best-performing currencies in 2024, but analysts say the market is mispricing Bank of England rate cuts and the close election results, which could lead to a "damp summer." Overnight, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reminded the nation that he is still in the race, outperforming his rival Keir Starmer in the first two televised leader debates. Recently, a snap YouGov poll conducted after the debate found that Sunak was considered the better performer by 51-49%, as he continued his attack and reinforced the Conservative "we have a plan" message to voters. Starmer, on the other hand, did not seem to enjoy this format, and was at times flustered by Sunak's strategy of pressing for details of Labor’s solutions to the many challenges facing the country.
According to reliable trading platforms, the election has not troubled the pound due to Labor’s near-unassailable lead and the expectation of policy continuity under the next government, given the similar economic policies pursued by both parties. However, if the outcome becomes more uncertain, volatility could rise, analysts say.
In this regard, Jeremy Stretch, analyst at CIBC Capital, says: "If polls tighten as the campaign progresses (we expect a narrower majority than polls suggest), we can expect a slight increase in GBP volatility accompanying a moderation in GBP valuations." George Vessey, senior foreign exchange analyst at Convera, says: "Election news has had no negative impact on the pound so far, but the noise could rise if polls show the incumbent Conservatives narrowing the gap, thus increasing uncertainty."
As we move through the mid-week session, GBP/EUR continues to pull back from 21-month highs and could head for a fifth consecutive daily decline. The pound-dollar exchange rate has also pared recent gains at 1.2767.
In the short term, Thursday’s ECB and Friday’s US jobs report are the highlights for sterling, but we will continue to watch the polls and any flashes of volatility if they tighten.
Overall, in recent years, politics has been a driving force for GBP, with far-left Labor leaders and the thorny issue of Brexit. But now, the Bank of England is the main driver. The BoE has helped to push GBP to multi-week highs against both the euro and the dollar as the pre-election civil service embargo means BoE officials cannot discuss interest rates outside of formal policy meetings, reducing GBP volatility.
Moreover, the calm will be tested by wage data next week and inflation data the following week. Both will set the tone for the Bank of England's June 20 rate decision. Furthermore, a strong inflation reading last week means a June rate cut is off the table, and markets see a slightly less than 50% chance of an August cut, which some analysts say is too low.
Eventually, they see a risk that the bank will use the June 20 decision to signal it is almost ready to cut, which could weigh on UK bond yields and the pound.
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Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:
According to the performance on the daily chart above, the GBP/USD price is still on an upward path with strong momentum from the resistance level of 1.2775. Bulls will increase their control over the trend if the currency pair moves above the resistance levels of 1.2830 and the psychological resistance of 1.3000, respectively. On the other hand, the psychological support level of 1.2600 will remain the most important for bears to regain control over the trend. Ultimately, US jobs numbers and investors' risk aversion will remain important factors in determining the next direction of the currency pair.
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