Potential signal:
- I am a buyer of this pair on a breakout. This means I would be buying at 374, with a stop loss at 368.
- I would also be a buyer on a dip, and would be interested near the 363 level, with a stop loss near the 358 level.
- As far as a target is concerned, I believe we are looking at 375, followed by 377 above.
The US dollar has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session, showing signs of life near the 367 forint level. The Hungarian forint of course is going to be in the crosshairs of anything happening in Ukraine due to proximity, but at the same time there are a lot of questions asked about the political situation in Hungary, as Victor Orban continues to clash with the European Union.
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Hungary still remembers communism, and the idea of having to acquiesce to a foreign government, and therefore might be a little bit more stubborn than some of the other countries in the European Union. It is because of this that the Hungarian forint finds itself just as much a political currency than a tradable one. I think at this point in time, the Europeans will continue to do what they can to push the Hungarians around, but it is interesting that they don’t hesitate the pushback it’s a pretty interesting turn of events.
One of the smartest things that the Hungarians have done has been to keep their own currency. This separates them from the euro, which over the longer term should be a good thing. However, right now it looks like everybody is running to the US dollar, perhaps for safety in the idea of investing in Hungary right now is difficult when you have everything going on in the Ukrainian situation.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair is rather positive, with perhaps the exception of a possible double top near the 374 HUF level. If we can break above there, then the market could go much higher, perhaps reaching the 375 level, and beyond. This is a pair that is typically very choppy, but I do think that any time we get a bit of a pullback there will probably be quite a few traders willing to step in and buy this pair in order to find value.
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