Although the official outcome for India’s national election is not due until tomorrow, there is a clear indication the current government leadership is set to return to power.
- Confidence in financial institutions in India has grown as exit polls regarding the India national election shows that Narendra Modi is set to remain in power with a comfortable majority.
- Sometimes Forex is simply about behavioral sentiment. While technical traders may not like the idea, the outlook of financial institutions as they position via their forecasts which include economic and political considerations frequently rule the bigger trading landscape.
Yes, the Reserve Bank of India remains an integral part of Forex value for the USD/INR. The currency pair is near the 83.1375 ratio as of this writing with fast changes being displayed. A low of nearly 82.9270 was seen momentarily this morning. This depth challenged prices last seen in the middle of March this year. However, the story for the USD/INR remains transfixed on the ability that financial institutions now have a clear outlook regarding the financial landscape for India the next handful of years. This comfort level allows for mid-term outlooks and commercial transactions which include cash forward positions for enterprises.
USD/INR Near-Term Outlook and Technical Trading Insights
Having raced to lows early this morning, traders should not get overly optimistic about a return to the lower depths generated. Instead technically now that the large positions which were likely waiting on clear election results to be acted upon by financial institutions are mostly out of the way, a return to technical considerations may be appropriate. However, the fact that the USD/INR is within the lower part of its price range since March the 24th should be considered.
It is possible that support levels near the 83.1300 to 83.0700 levels may start to prove durable in the near-term and if they do this may start to ignite USD/INR positions which look for slightly higher values to be exhibited. Traders should note that the Reserve Bank of India has shown that it seems to be most comfortable with a rate between 83.1000 and 83.4000, yes with the occasional outliers, for a while.
Top Forex Brokers
USD/INR Correlations to Broad Forex Market in Question
The government of India has kept a rather tight grip on the exchange rate of the USD/INR and now that the current leadership is set to remain in place traders should expect the same fiscal policies to also be seen.
- While the U.S Federal Reserve is expected to sound more dovish during their FOMC Meeting on the 12th of June, this may only keep the USD/INR within the lower boundaries of its known range.
- Trading in the near-term should be monitored and perhaps bumps (fluctuations) will be seen in the short term, but speculators using support levels to look for quick hitting wagers that seek reversals upwards cannot be blamed in the USD/INR.
USD/INR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 83.1360
Current Support: 83.0820
High Target: 83.1790
Low Target: 83.0690
Ready to trade our Forex daily analysis and predictions? Here are the best forex trading apps in India to choose from.