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USD/MXN Analysis: Populism Causing Nervous Bullish Speculative Action

By Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

The USD/MXN has held onto the upper tier of its long-term price value as political populism in Mexico is causing nervous behavioral sentiment among financial institutions.

USD/MXN Analysis Today - 17/06: Populism Sparks USD (Chart)

  • The USD/MXN has opened today’s trading and is around the 18.44845 price which is actually within the middle ground of its five day price range.
  • Financial institutions have clearly demonstrated their concerns regarding the populist politics being sounded by the newly elected socialist President of Mexico.
  • The USD/MXN is trading near values it saw in early 2023, but this happened when a strong bearish trend was emerging downwards.
  • The USD/MXN did hit a high around the 19.00000 on the 12th of June last week.

The momentary spike higher was a warning sign for USD/MXN traders that nervous conditions have changed behavioral sentiment in the currency pair. The USD/MXN had enjoyed a sincere bearish trend over the past two and a half years. On the 13th of May, just a bit over a month ago, the USD/MXN was trading near the 16.55000 realm. On the 3rd of June the USD/MXN was near the 16.90500 ratio.

USD/MXN Shift in Behavioral Sentiment and Equilibrium

Traders who instinctively tried to sell the USD/MXN because they felt it was overbought early last week got a rude awakening as the combination of financial institutional fear of the new Mexican government combined with the U.S Federal Reserve rhetoric created massive volatility again to the upside. Yes, the USD/MXN has come down from its highs of last week, but values still reside above the starting point seen last week around the 18.21800 ratio.

Yes, the USD/MXN from a technical perspective looks to be overbought, and in fact the nervous sentiment surrounding the Mexican Peso may lessen in days and weeks ahead, but for the moment day traders need to be cautious. The renewed threat of judicial reforms has created tension for financial institutions that likely see the move as a precursor to other possible government actions which could affect the economy via new social mandates. The question is where equilibrium for the USD/MXN exists in the short-term that will be considered safe.

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18.40000 USD/MXN Level as Near-Term Support

Price action in the USD/MXN since Thursday of last week has shown rather solid support for the currency pair to flourish around the 18.40000 to 18.39000 ratios. Day traders will have to remain quite cautious, but they should certainly not be too ambitious about a sudden volatile bearish trend developing in the USD/MXN.

  • The USD/MXN appears to have taken on a completely different tone which highlights cautious financial institutions are now worried about the fiscal impact of the President-elect of Mexico.
  • Questions and concerns regarding what the new President-elect’s political party will do in the days and weeks ahead are legitimate, this before she takes formal power in early October.
  • Using support levels to look for moves higher which challenge current resistance levels may be the wager USD/MXN traders want to pursue in the near-term.

USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 18.46600

Current Support: 18.43125

High Target: 18.52100

Low Target: 18.39150

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Robert Petrucci
About Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.
 

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