- The US dollar has drifted a little bit lower against the Mexican peso during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to consolidate around the 18.50 MXN level.
- This is an area that seems to be a bit of a magnet for price at the moment, after we had shot straight up in the air previously.
- Ultimately, this is a market that I think is trying to build up enough momentum to continue a move higher, but there are a lot of questions to be asked about both the United States and Mexico in the meantime.
Mexico
At this point, the interest rates in Mexico certainly are much higher and stronger than the United States, but we also have to keep in mind that there are a lot of political concerns and Mexico at the moment, as a complete reworking of the way the Supreme Court is chosen seems to be a real potential. Because of this, traders are a bit concerned as to how Mexican politics and government functions from here on out.
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Furthermore, you need to keep in mind that the Mexican economy is highly levered to the United States, and as it is an export economy, it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see its fortunes tied to how its Northern neighbor is doing.
United States
The United States of course has seen a lot of inflation, and the idea that the Federal Reserve may stand pat on interest rate cuts does suggest that the US dollar may continue to do better. If that’s the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of upward pressure in this pair, especially as the US economy seems to be one of the stronger ones out there, and while that does help Mexican equities, with the uncertainty in the political sphere, it could continue to put downward pressure on the Mexican peso, lifting this pair in the process. We have recently seen a lot of momentum jump into this market in the favor of the US, and I think we will continue to see a bit of a follow-through at this point.
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