- The US dollar has been very bullish during the bulk of the month of June, but now it looks like we are at a major crossroad.
- I think there are a couple of clear levels that you need to pay attention to when it comes to the Mexican peso to determine which direction we are going.
- After all, the market is going to have to pay close attention to the global economy, as the Mexican peso is one way that a lot of traders will try to play Latin America.
All that being said, the market has exploded to the upside over the last month or so, mainly due to fears of the Mexican election bring in a whole swath of political changes in that country. Ultimately, I think that is just going to end up being a bit of an excuse to turn things around. After all, the closer we get to the 16 pesos level, the closer you get to a massive support level. After that, the market has been very well supported in that area over the last several years, and the fact that we have bounce from there does suggest that we could see quite a bit of a “floor in the market” in that region yet again.
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The momentum will continue to be a major factor in this market, and at this point in time it’s likely that the 19 MXN level will be a gateway to much higher pricing. Keep in mind that the interest rate differential does favor the Mexican peso, but if we break above the 19 pesos level, then tells me that there is enough fear out there to have this market go much higher. If we do break above that level, then we could go to the 20 pesos level, as it would be the next logical “large, round, psychologically significant figure.”
On the other hand, if we break down below the 17.50 MXN level opens up the possibility of a move down to the 16.66 MXN level, an area that has been a significant amount of support and bullish pressure earlier in the month. At this point, the month of July could be rather interesting and important for the USD/MXN pair.
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