Potential signal:
- I am a buyer of this pair at the current levels.
- I would be aiming for 90.50, with a stop loss closer to the 87 level.
The US dollar has been all over the place during the trading session on Thursday as the PPI numbers came out weaker than anticipated. This has people wondering whether or not the Federal Reserve will be cutting rates sooner rather than later, and it's worth noting that the volatility in the Russian ruble wasn't necessarily unique during the session.
That being said, it is worth noting that the pair is gravitating towards the 88 RUB level, an area that has been supported multiple times period with this being the case, I like the idea of looking for buying opportunities in this pair. Remember, although there have been stringent restrictions on the Russia and turns out that both India and China have no qualms whatsoever about buying crude oil coming out of the Russian Federation. In fact, the Russian Federation has outperformed many other economies around the world recently, and therefore the Russian ruble has held up relatively well. This is particularly interesting considering that there is now talk of even further sanctions coming out of the United States, but quite frankly we are starting to see the weaponization of the US dollar fail to effect the global south like it once did.
Ultimately, we are range bound
Looking at the US dollar against the Russian ruble it has been stuck in a tight range between the 88 rubles level and the 92 rubles level since the sanctions have failed against the Russian economy with the war in Ukraine dragging on, it makes sense that we will see more of the same. Furthermore, it has become increasingly obvious that NATO is not able to push back the Russians. Regardless of politics, the reality is that the Russian economy is not collapsing, and crude oil is starting to strengthen. However, it must be noted that the US economy does seem to be slowing down and that could have a bit of an influence in this pair.
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