Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 32.05.
- Set a stop-loss order below 31.95.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 32.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 32.60.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 32.90.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 31.95.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair opened this week's trading with stability. Recently, the pair maintained the same range it has been in for several weeks. The Central Bank of Turkey announced an increase in foreign exchange and gold reserves as of May 31. So far, foreign exchange reserves at the central bank rose by $1.144 billion to $83.909 billion, while gold reserves rose by $264 million to $59.740 billion during the week. Total reserves rose by $1.406 billion to $143.648 billion compared to the previous week.
In this regard, Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek highlighted this increase, emphasizing the strengthening of financial stability and improving the country's ability to withstand external shocks. Net reserves, excluding swap contracts, turned positive for the first time since March 2020, increasing by $67 billion over two months. Deputy President Cüneyt Yılmaz noted that the accumulation of reserves accelerated due to the increase in foreign inflows and export revenues, along with a decrease in domestic demand for foreign currency, expecting further growth in reserves in the future.
In other statements issued at the end of last week, the Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, Fatih Karahan, explained that his country has become more easily obtaining foreign financing resources thanks to the improvement in the current account. In conjunction with the decline in the risk premium, and the renewal of external debts of our banks. Recently, the growing confidence in the path of declining inflation has increased the trend towards the Turkish lira and financial assets, which has helped accelerate the share of deposits in Turkish lira. With the increasing demand for the Turkish lira, the share of lira deposits rose to 48% of the total by August 31 of last year, and we expect this increase to continue until the end of 2024.
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USD/TRY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY exchange rate has not seen any significant movements with the price stabilizing within a specific range. Currently, the pair is trading within a triangle pattern on the 4-hour time frame as shown by the chart. At the same time, the pair has remained around the 50 and 200 moving averages on the 4-hour time frame, indicating a divergence in the medium term. On the larger time frame, the price has stabilized above those averages, where the upward trend remains the dominant trend for the pair. In case the price rises, the target is towards the resistance levels at 32.87 and 32.00, respectively. If the price declines, it targets the support levels at 32.04 and 31.70, respectively. Ultimately, Turkish Lira against the US Dollar price expectations include price divergence as long as it stabilizes within the triangle range.
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