Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 32.05.
- Set a stop-loss order below 32.95.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 32.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 32.60.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 32.90.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 31.95.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair has maintained its stability without any significant changes. Recently, the pair has continued to move at the same levels for the third month in a row, confirming the controlled movement of the Turkish currency.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released preliminary economic growth figures for the first quarter of this year, indicating a modest pick-up in the economic expansion of the G20 countries. Obviously, the data shows an increase from 0.7% in the previous quarter to an average growth rate of 0.9% in the G20 economies. Turkey leads the group that witnessed the largest economic boom among the G20, achieving a strong growth rate of 2.4%.
In other news, Fitch Ratings bank analyst Ahmed Emre Kilinç stated that Turkish banks issued nearly $4.6 billion in Tier 2 capital last year, which helped reduce risks stemming from external financing. Also, Kilinç pointed out that Turkish banks have seen an improvement in access to external financing, especially after the May 2023 elections, leading to a significant decline in external financing risks. Moreover, this improvement is attributed to changes in monetary policy and a decrease in risk premiums. Banks issued euro-denominated bonds for the first time, attracting a wide range of investors, including smaller banks. Furthermore, Kilinç emphasized that despite the potential for lower profitability, the capital structure of Turkish banks remains strong, supported by the newly issued Tier 2 loans. Swaps with the central bank have decreased significantly, while swaps with foreign banks have increased. Finally, Kilinç highlighted that 20% of Turkish banks' liabilities originate from external financing, with short-term debt being a major risk factor.
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USD/TRY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
The USD/TRY exchange rate traded in a quasi-stable manner, with the pair continuing to move within a narrow range of movement, without any significant fluctuations. Recently, the price settled in trading within a triangle pattern on the four-hour chart as shown in the attached chart. Meanwhile, the price fluctuated around the 50 and 200 moving averages on the four-hour timeframe. While the price traded above the same averages on the daily timeframe, indicating medium-term stability while the overall trend remains bullish on the pair. In case the price rises, the pair is expected to target the resistance levels at 32.87 and 32.00. On the other hand, if the price falls below the support levels, it will target the support levels at 32.04 and 31.70. Ultimately, The Turkish Lira price forecast includes price divergence as long as it remains stable within the triangle range.
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