Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 32.05.
- Set a stop-loss order below 31.95.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 32.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 32.47.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 32.60.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 31.95.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY currency pair stabilized at the beginning of this week's trading, continuing to trade within a limited range that has been in place since May. Meanwhile, Reports of a potential currency movement have increased amid a series of data and statements carrying optimistic expectations for the future of the Turkish economy. Recently, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye has announced optimistic economic forecasts, predicting a positive turnaround in financial results over the next four years, putting aside previous comparative analyses.
In the meantime, investors are following the statements of the Central Bank of Turkey's Governor, Fatih Karahan, who predicts a positive economic turnaround within four years. Also, Governor Karahan indicated that the Central Bank's ongoing initiatives aim to enhance market efficiency and ensure financial stability in the foreseeable future.
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In a strategic move, the central bank will gradually reduce the economy’s reliance on protected deposits. Consequently, This is in conjunction with accelerating the tightening monetary policies, as Karahan revealed that the central bank plans to use interest rates as a tool to enhance the balance between supply and demand, and as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce inflation. The central bank is set to cancel the simplification process of securities, in addition to the continued withdrawal of protected deposits. Karahan explained that raising the interest rate on deposits in Turkish lira encourages the process of saving in local currency, which has been noticeable since last April. Furthermore, the recent data has revealed a significant decline in foreign exchange reserves, especially in the area of deposits protected from foreign exchange rate fluctuations, according to the latest update issued last month.
Finally, the Central Bank Governor reiterated his commitment to protecting the country's financial stability, pledging to maintain the current level of monetary restraint until a balance is achieved between domestic demand and savings.
USD/TRY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY currency pair did not make any significant moves at the beginning of the week. The pair continued to trade within a descending triangle pattern, as shown on the four-hour timeframe chart. At the same time, the pair continued to move around the 50-day and 200-day moving averages on the four-hour timeframe, indicating medium-term divergence. On the larger timeframe, the upward trend dominates the pair, with the price trading above these averages. If the price rises, it will target the resistance levels at 32.40 and 32.50, respectively. While if the price falls, it will target the support levels at 32.06 and 31.70, respectively. Turkish Lira price forecasts include pair divergence as long as it remains within the triangle pattern shown.
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