Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 32.05.
- Set a stop-loss order below 31.95.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 32.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 32.60.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 32.90.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 31.95.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair retreated yesterday, Wednesday, against the Turkish lira, while it stabilized this morning, Thursday. Recently, the pair returned to trading in the same range in which they have stabilized since last month, after a limited movement last Tuesday. Consequently, this confirms the fact of manipulation of the Turkish currency.
Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek denied plans to impose taxes on stock market profits and cryptocurrency trading, while considering imposing "limited" trading fees that will be imposed on assets only. The Minister of Finance aims to follow a broad tax approach to achieve justice and efficiency in collection. Furthermore, this comes at a time when some officials are concerned about market inefficiency due to potential taxes. Discussions about imposing taxes on stock and cryptocurrency returns have caused the Turkish market to decline. Simsek leads an economic team that is tightening fiscal policy to combat high inflation, including reducing spending and lowering corporate tax rates.
In other news, the World Bank's Turkey Director Humberto Lopez announced that Turkey will receive additional financing of $18 billion in addition to the current funds. Also, he praised Turkey's economic growth, which has averaged 5.4% over the past 20 years, and stressed the importance of inclusive and sustainable growth. Lopez highlighted the need for investment in sectors that enhance economic efficiency and productivity, while acknowledging short-term challenges such as inflation. Additionally, he stressed the importance of productivity and efficiency in the long term for global competitiveness. Moreover, Lopez noted a slight decline in Turkey's efficiency over the past decade and stressed the importance of the energy transition strategy. Also, Lopez added to Turkey's strong position in energy production with a capacity of around 105 thousand megawatts.
USD/TRY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY exchange rate has stabilized. In the same limited range that has stabilized in a range for the past few weeks. Currently, the pair is trading above an upward trend line on the 4-hour time frame as shown by the chart. At the same time, the pair has remained close to the 50 and 200 moving averages on the 4-hour time frame. Obviously, this indicates a divergence in the medium-term trend. On the larger time frame, the price has stabilized above those averages, where the upward trend remains the dominant trend for the pair. In case the price rises, the target is towards the resistance levels at 32.87 and 32.00, respectively. If the price declines, it targets the support levels at 32.04 and 31.70, respectively. Ultimately, Turkish Lira price expectations include price divergence if it stabilizes between the mentioned moving averages.
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