The USD/ZAR has traversed within the higher elements of its near-term price range in a rather tight manner as financial institutions wait on South Africa political clarity.
- The USD/ZAR is trading around the 18.85400 ratio with a steady display of fluctuations early this morning.
- A high of nearly 19.00345 was briefly touched on Thursday of last week.
- And while U.S jobs numbers put a scare into the broad Forex market on Friday, the USD/ZAR did not experience a rapid bullish trend, instead traversing around the 18.90000 vicinity essentially not paying attention to the outcome.
Intriguingly the value of the South Africa Rand has been rather steady the past handful of days as financial institutions and businesses clearly has all eyes on the ongoing coalition talks in the nation. The USD/ZAR has been waiting for news regarding the formation of a government, which will be led by the ANC, but whose political partners are not agreed upon yet. The USD/ZAR price range has been calm, but traders need to remain vigilant because volatility could happen suddenly.
Higher Range is a Middle Ground Depending on Outcome of Coalition
The ANC has until June the 18th to announce its coalition. If the ANC is unable to conclude an agreement another election could be called for in 90 days. However, this is unlikely to happen and the partnership between political rivals for the moment is being discussed under the umbrella of a national unity government. Simply put if the ANC moves to the hard-left the USD/ZAR will likely rise remarkably fast, if the ANC moves ahead with more centrist parties the USD/ZAR will likely generate bearish momentum until support is found.
But politics isn’t the only factor for day traders of the USD/ZAR, the U.S will release inflation data this Wednesday and the Federal Reserve will proclaim their FOMC rhetoric later on the same day. Meaning, financial institutions may be forced to react to the USD centric news in the middle of this week. The question is what the USD/ZAR price range will do until then and afterwards.
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Caution Recommended in the USD/ZAR
Human tendency is optimistic, but the outcome of the South Africa coalition talks is uncertain. While it makes a lot of sense to believe the ANC will choose more centrists political partners like the Democratic Alliance, the two parties do not see things eye to eye. Speculating on the coalition talks to produce an optimistic outcome cannot be blamed, but to do this a trader needs to be very careful and make sure all their risk taking tactics are working.
- Looking for strong downside in the USD/ZAR today and tomorrow may be too optimistically speculative.
- The range for the currency pair may continue to battle along the 18.80000 to 18.90000 range until more insights are delivered for financial institutions.
USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 18.87150
Current Support: 18.85100
High Target: 18.92500
Low Target: 18.78400
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