Potential signal:
- I believe that sooner or later the US dollar will recover, and if we can break above the 18.6 level, then I am going long and aiming towards the 19.20 level.
- Short term pullbacks are possible, but I would have a stop loss close to the 18.20 level.
- The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday as we continue to dance around the 18.40 level, an area that has been important multiple times period however, this is a market that has a wider consolidation area that we need to be paying close attention to, with an eye on the 18 level underneath.
Above, we have the 19.40 level is an area that has been a very important level previously, as it has offered a lot of resistance previously. Ultimately, if the market were to break above the 19.40 level, then it could really start a huge move higher in the US dollar, but right now it doesn't seem to be likely. However, I do think that the market is likely to see quite a bit of buying pressure that will eventually send this market higher.
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Technical analysis
The technical analysis on this pair is very likely to continue to be sideways overall, as we are trading in a range of 1.5 Rand. Ultimately, this is a market that I think has to be watched very closely, as the South African Rand is a major emerging market currency that traders will pay close attention to.
In the short term, it is a bit of an uphill climb for the US dollar to rally against the South African Rand, so with that being the case I think we need to see a lot more in the way of momentum to make this market rise. Traders in general we'll look at this through the prism of risk appetite, as obviously the US dollar is considered to be a safety currency more than anything else.
If we do continue to see a lot of volatility, you would believe that sooner or later the U.S. dollar will continue to climb, mainly due to the fact that the fear out there should continue to make the greenback much more interesting and likely to hold, as traders will jump into the treasury markets in the United States.
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