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AUD/JPY Forecast: Aussie Freefalls Against the Yen as the BoJ Intervenes

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
  • In my daily analysis of the AUD/JPY currency pair, I can see that this asset has been completely wiped out for the session, which makes sense considering that the Bank of Japan has admitted to intervening.
  • After all, the Consumer Price Index numbers in the United States came in less than anticipated, the use that opportunity start shorting various currencies against the Japanese yen, although it is somewhat unknown whether or not they shorted the Australian dollar directly.

AUD/JPY Forecast Today - 12/07: Australian Dollar Falls (Chart)

Nonetheless, this is a market that is following right along with the USD/JPY pair, and after intervening, we have seen the Japanese yen strengthen quite nicely. However, it’s worth noting that the bank of Japan has a long history of intervening, just as the market has a long history of ignoring that and buying into these pairs.

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Interest Rate Differential

After all, as long as the interest rate differential favors the Australian dollar, it makes sense to hold onto this pair. Furthermore, the Australian dollar did see a little bit of strength during the day anyway, not just against the Japanese yen but also the United States dollar. With that being said, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before this market rallies, and I will be waiting for some type of momentum to reenter this pair in order to start buying.

It’s difficult to explain exactly when that is, but we are looking at a market that desperately needs to see some type of bounce. If we get that bounce, it’s likely that the market then goes much higher, because quite frankly the Bank of Japan has already found itself wanting more than once. The interest rate differential will continue to pay you at the end of every session, so I think it’s a situation where you are just simply for traders to come in and pick this thing up so you can take advantage of any momentum that enters. The last time that the intervening, it was several days’ worth of weakness, but I don’t think that

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Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
 

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