Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6695.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6765.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 0.6740 and a take-profit at 0.6820.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6690.
The AUD/USD pair suffered a harsh reversal in the overnight session as traders waited for the upcoming Australian jobs data. After soaring to a high of 0.6800 this week, it retreated to 0.6715 on Wednesday morning.
Australia jobs data ahead
The AUD/USD pair pulled back after a report by the Chinese government showed that the economy slowed in the second quarter. It expanded by 4.7% in Q2, missing the expected growth rate of 5.1%.
Chinese numbers are important for Australia because it is its biggest trading partner. It buys most of Australia’s commodities like coal, iron ore, and steel.
The next important data to watch will come out on Thursday when Australia will publish the latest jobs numbers. Economists expect the data to show that the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% in May to 4.1% in June.
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The median estimate is that the economy created over 20.2k jobs in June while the participation rate eased to 66.7%.
If these estimates are correct, they will lower the chances that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hike interest rates as some analysts expect. Instead, the bank will likely hold rates steady for longer as it continues to fight the steady inflation.
The AUD/USD pair eased after the US published better-than-expected retail sales numbers. Retail sales excluding gas and autos rose from 0.3% in May to 0.8% in June, higher than the expected 0.2%.
The headline retail sales came in at 0.0%, higher than the expected drop of 0.3% while the core retail sales rose by 0.4%. These numbers came as most analysts are expecting the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as soon as in the September meeting.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD exchange rate peaked at 0.6800 on July 11th and has now pulled back to 0.6717. On the four-hour chart, the pair remains slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement point.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator have pointed downwards. It also remained between the 50-period and 25-period moving averages.
Therefore, the pair will likely drop and retest the 23.6% retracement point at 0.6695 and then resume the uptrend. The alternate scenario is where it resumes bouncing back since it has formed a small hammer chart pattern.
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