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BTC/USD Forecast: Strong but Stretched

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
  • Bitcoin had an explosive move to the upside during the trading session on Friday.
  • As we've seen a lot of risk on behavior. This has been a fairly rough week for a lot of risk assets, but Bitcoin has been spared a lot of that.
  • Yes, we did fall a bit during the week, but we bounced from the 50 day EMA only to turn around and show signs of life to break above the $67,000 level.

If we can break above the $68,000 level, then I think it's likely that the market could go looking to the $73,000 level. Pullbacks at this point in time will continue to pay close attention to the 50 day EMA that we had bounce from. But even after that, we have the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. And of course, the $56,500 level all coming into the picture.

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Regardless, this is a market that I think given enough time, will find a reason to continue going higher, mainly due to the fact that this is now a Wall Street asset. If that's going to be the case. Big money does not want this thing to fall for very long, and that suggests to me that we have a situation where every time it dips, there will be people willing to jump in because they are trying to take advantage of cheap coins.

The Stability of the Market is Impressive

BTC/USD Forecast Today 29/7: Strong but Stretched (graph)

Keep in mind that we've recently seen a massive amount of Bitcoin dumped into the market via the Mount Gox settlement, and of course, the fact that the Germans have dumped their holdings, the fact that the market has found itself to be stable and then rally after all of that is an extraordinarily bullish sign. Because of this, I think you've got a scenario where you are looking at a market that eventually breaks the highs and perhaps even goes as high as $85,000 over the longer-term. With this, I am bullish, but I also recognize that this is a market that probably need a short-term pull back to offer a bit of value.

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Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
 

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