Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 70,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 60,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 60,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 70,000.
Bitcoin price held steady on Thursday as investors focused on the Federal Reserve actions and the US election. The BTC/USD pair rose to 66,212, its highest level since June 20th. It has moved into a deep bull market as it jumped by 20% from its lowest point this month.
US election and Fed actions
Bitcoin has reacted to numerous events recently. The German government completed offloading its 50,000 coins last week. Also, analysts expect that payouts to Mt.Gox victims will not have a major impact on Bitcoin since it can handle sales worth over $8 billion.
From a macro perspective, Bitcoin has cheered statements by Federal Reserve officials. In them, they have hinted that the bank will start cutting interest rates in the coming months, potentially in September.
Conditions for a rate cut are improving now that the economy is softening, inflation is falling, and the unemployment rate is rising. The jobless rate has risen to 4.1%, its highest level since 2021.
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Bitcoin has also risen because of the ongoing Republican Convention and the rising hopes that Donald Trump will win the next election. Trump has become a crypto advocate and pledged to support Bitcoin and ban Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC).
He has also nominated JD Vance, a crypto advocate to be his running mate. Therefore, traders believe that he will ultimately be good for the industry and appoint a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair who favors a light-touch approach to regulations.
BTC/USD technical forecast
The daily chart shows that Bitcoin price bottomed at $53,700 earlier this month and then bounced back. This was an important level since it was along the lower side of the descending channel that connects its lowest points in March and May.
The pair has formed a widening falling wedge pattern, pointing to more upside in the next few weeks. Such a move will be confirmed if it rises above the upper side of the wedge chart pattern.
The BTC/USD pair has also moved to the third phase of the three drives chart pattern. In most cases, assets make a bullish breakout when it moves to the current phase. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will continue rising as buyers target the upper side of the wedge at 71,658. A move above that level will confirm the bullish view.
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