Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 60,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 63,780.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 62,200 and a take-profit at 64,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 60,000.
Bitcoin price dropped sharply in the overnight session even as the US dollar index dropped and US equities continued their recovery. The BTC/USD pair retreated to 62,000, down from this week’s high of 63,783.
Bitcoin ETF inflows are rising
The BTC/USD pair retreated to the key support level at 62,000 as the US dollar index dropped by 20 basis points to $105.35. In most cases, Bitcoin rallies when the greenback is retreating.
Bitcoin also dropped even as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices continued their bull run. The S&P 500 index has moved to over $5,500 while the Dow Jones is approaching the resistance at $40,000.
Most importantly, it slipped even as most spot ETFs continued seeing inflows. They added a record $124 million inflows on Monday.
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Therefore, the ongoing pullback is likely because traders are waiting for the next catalyst for the coin. Also, it is happening as the US and the German government continued selling Bitcoins, which has led to more supply in exchanges.
The next likely catalyst that could move Bitcoin and other assets will be the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes. These minutes will provide more information about the last meeting and what to expect in the coming meetings.
Most economists expect the Fed will maintain a relatively hawkish tone as it observes the country’s inflation trends. In a statement on Tuesday, Jerome Powell noted that the bank would be patient when determining when to start cutting interest rates.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The 4H chart shows that Bitcoin bottomed at $58,408 on June 24th and then bounced back to $63,783 on Monday. It has then lost momentum and retreated to a low of 62,000, the Woodie pivot point.
The pair has also retreated below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement point and the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicator have pointed downwards.
The RSI dropped below the neutral point at 50 while the two lines of the MACD have formed a bearish crossover. Therefore, the BTC/USD pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the psychological point at 60,000.
On the flip side, the pair will likely bounce back and retest this week’s high of 63,780, which is also the 50% retracement point.
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