My previous BTC/USD signal on 27th June produced a profitable long trade from the bullish bounce at $60,632.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75% per trade.
- Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $58,309 or $55,425.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $59,094, $60,632, or $61,180.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast on 27th June that Bitcoin was showing some bearish signs, so I was looking for bearish reversals from failed tests of resistance levels as the best entry method with which to open new short trades.
This was not a great call for the day as the price was quite bullish. However, the next day things turned more bearish, and the price is now lower than it was then by a meaningful amount, so over the longer term I was taking the correct approach.
The technical picture has become much more bearish. The price chart below shows that the price action has been moving lower in clearly impulsive bearish waves which keep printing obvious lower resistance levels, which is also a bearish sign.
The price has arrived at the support level of $58,309 which is very important technically – a break below this level would see the price have room to fall quickly as far as the $55,000 area, as this price zone is blue sky and has not been reached for two months.
I think $58,309 could be very pivotal. As the price is very close to it, I think the best approach will be to wait for the level to be tested and to go long with a small speculative position if there is a bullish bounce. If the level is broken and we get two consecutive lower hourly closes below it today without any strong lower wick, a short trade targeting the next support level at $55,425 will make sense.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin or the US Dollar.
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