Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 53,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 59,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 57,000 and a take-profit at 60,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 55,000.
Bitcoin price stabilized during the weekend as the strong sell-off experienced on Friday last week. After dropping to 53,393, the BTC/USD pair bounced back to over 58,000 on Saturday. It was trading at 57,000 on Monday as traders waited for the next catalyst.
Bitcoin retreat fades
Bitcoin has been under intense pressure in the past few weeks as it faced numerous headwinds. First, there is the fact that Bitcoin has had no major headline in the past few months. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) already approved 11 ETFs earlier this year while the halving event happened a few months ago.
Second, there are signs that wallets associated with Mt. Gox have started to move money. That means that Bitcoins worth billions could be liquidated in the coming months, which will lead to more supply.
Third, the German government has started moving Bitcoins in its portfolio in exchanges, which is a sign that it will start selling them soon.
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Further, many Bitcoin mining companies have started to capitulate and sell their Bitcoin holdings. All these events have led to more Bitcoin balances in exchanges, which is a negative sign for the coin.
On the positive side, there is a likelihood that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates later this year after last week’s jobs and PMI numbers from the United States. Rate cuts by the Fed would be a positive thing for Bitcoin and other risky assets.
The other positive thing is that Joe Biden has committed to staying in the race for the US presidency. This is a positive sign since it raises the possibility that Donald Trump will win the presidency in November. Most crypto traders view Trump favourably in terms of regulations.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair formed a giant double-top pattern around the 72,000 level in the past few months. It dropped below this pattern’s neckline last week as it tumbled to a multi-month low of 53,393.
Bitcoin formed a small hammer pattern on Friday, which explains why it rebounded on Saturday. This rebound was most likely a dead cat bounce, which happens when an asset in a downtrend sees a short-term rebound.
Bitcoin remains below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below the neutral point at 50. Therefore, the path of the least resistance is downwards, with the next point to watch being at 50,000.
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