My previous EUR/USD signal on 8th July was not triggered as none of the key levels were ever reached.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%.
- Trades may only be taken before 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0920 or $1.0945.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0885, $1.0874, or $1.0844.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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EUR/USD Analysis
In my previous EUR/USD forecast on 8th July, I wrote that the line of least resistance here was likely to be upwards, although the resistance level at $1.0856 may well be too strong to be overcome.
I was looking for a bullish bounce rejecting the confluence of the round number at $1.0800 and the horizontal support level at $1.0795 as a great signal for a new long trade entry.
This was not a very helpful call for the day, but over the longer-term, it was a good call, as the price rose higher to finally made a new 50-day high bullish close above $1.0900. However, I was dubious about this bullish breakout as I wanted to see a daily close above $1.0920 which seems to be strong support. That was a good approach as we have still not had a close above that level.
The US Dollar is looking weak as it tests and fails to rise above a former zone of support which now seems to have become resistance. This suggests the Dollar is ready to fall and we just need some strength in the Euro to generate a bullish breakout beyond $1.0920.
Further bullish signs are the strong bounce we got at the support level of $1.0874, and the persistence of the ascending price channel which we see within the price chart below.
I will not take any trade here until we get a bullish close at the end of the New York session above $1.0920.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning either the EUR or the USD.
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