My previous EUR/USD signal on 24th July was not triggered.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%.
- Trades may only be taken before 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0826, $1.0843, or $1.0870.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0795 or $1.0779.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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EUR/USD Analysis
In my previous EUR/USD forecast on 24th July, I wrote that I was seeing strong short-term bullish momentum, so the price may rise to test what is likely to be new resistance at $1.0874 or even $1.0860.
This was a good call insofar as the price rose early in the London session before turning bearish again. What was not accurate was my faith in nearby support levels, which were not really respected.
The technical picture has become more bearish, with the price action now contained for several days within a descending wedge chart pattern which might become a symmetrical price channel – that would be a more reliable chart formation.
Despite this bearishness, the support levels just below $1.0800 look strong. This area will probably also be pivotal for trend traders who entered long at the breakout new high some days ago, and who will start to exit this trade if the price gets established below the $1.0775 area.
There are high-impact releases today for both currencies, so the picture may become clearer after that as either could affect the price. As a rule, if the price gets below $1.0775 that will be a bearish signal, and if above $1.0870 a bullish sign. A rise to the area above $1.0870 does look unlikely.
Concerning the EUR, there will be a release of German Preliminary CPI data. Regarding the USD, there will be releases of JOLTS Job Openings and CB Consumer Confidence data at 3pm.
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