- According to recent trades, the British pound reached its highest level in a year against the US dollar after rising 1.35% last week.
- However, this rise leaves it in an overbought technical area in the near term and vulnerable to weakness if this week’s inflation and wage numbers come in below expectations.
- According to forex market trading, the GBP/USD exchange rate reached a high of 1.2990 on Friday and held onto these gains as Monday ushers in a busy week for the British currency.
Technical forecasts for the GPB/USD pair today:
The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2986 at the time of writing, meaning the most competitive payout rates on offer are now approaching 1.2914. The chances of a pullback are high, with the daily RSI now reading 72.98. Technically, a reading above 70 is consistent with overbought signals. Technically, the RSI rarely stays above 70 or below 30 as it tends to revert back towards 50. For this to happen, a period of consolidation or weakness must follow.
Overall, any weakness in the coming days could be limited to the previous 2024 cycle highs at 1.2893 and 1.2860 respectively. Thus, the weakness is seen as temporary at this stage as GBP/USD exchange rate is trading well above its key moving averages, confirming that the exchange rate is in an uptrend that could continue to expand once a period of consolidation occurs.
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Commenting on the performance of the currency pair, Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at City Index, said, “The cable has risen above the downtrend line that has been in place since June 2021, indicating a potential major upside move.”
Overall, the pound’s outperformance means it is at the top of the G10 basket for 2024 thanks to three developments: 1) improving domestic data, 2) a softening of the Bank of England’s rate cut expectations, and 3) improving political sentiment.
This week, the main tests for the pound will come from inflation and wages figures. Services inflation is forecast to reach 5.6% and UK CPI inflation is forecast to reach 2.0%. therefore, any decline in value would increase the chances of a rate cut on August 1 and send sterling into overbought territory. Analysts at Oxford Economics believe the headline CPI inflation rate will come in at 1.8%, which would be lower than expected and would trigger a sell-off in sterling. However, the sell-off in sterling will be limited as the BoE will find it difficult to cut aggressively if the economy continues to perform strongly, something several economists said was likely after last week’s GDP release.
As for Thursday’s wage figures, average weekly earnings are expected to rise by 5.8% in the year to June. Obviously, anything below that will see GBP sell off. However, GBP’s performance reflects the weakness of the US dollar more than anything else. Recently, the dollar has been under pressure in recent days as investors settle into a strong possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in September.
Recently, confidence was boosted by weaker US CPI inflation data last week. GBP/USD broke through the 1.29 resistance barrier to reach a new 2024 high of 1.2935 after US CPI inflation came in at -0.1% m/m in June, down from 0% in May and below expectations of a 0.1% rise.
Now, money market pricing shows that the chances of a September Fed rate cut are now all but certain after the headline inflation rate fell to 3.0% year-on-year from 3.3%, below expectations of 3.1%. The most important US data in the coming days will be US retail sales on Tuesday, shedding light on demand in the economy. Market expectations of a drop below 0% month-on-month could lead to further weakness in the US dollar, as the Fed becomes increasingly confident that the process of lowering inflation is underway again.
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