GBP/USD
The British pound (as part of the GBP/USD trading pair) has rallied significantly during the course of the week to test the 1.28 level. This is an area that of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and a lot of people will be paying close attention to see if the resistance does hold. However, the one thing that we need to pay attention to is the fact that this weekly candlestick is much stronger than the ones that preceded it, and of course we are closing toward the top of the range.
DAX
The German index initially pulled back just a bit during the course of the trading week, but has found enough support at the €18,000 level, and therefore I think we have a bit of a bounce that is going to continue to drive this market higher. Ultimately, the market could go looking to the €19,000 level, which of course is an area that we have seen a lot of resistance in previously. Ultimately, this is also a market that needs to grind away and work off some of the excess froth that we have seen for some time.
GBP/CHF
The British pound had a very strong week against the Swiss franc, but it’s worth noting that the last 3 days of the week all formed shooting stars. In other words, I think we get a short-term pullback before buyers come back in order to take off to the upside. The 1.13 level underneath is a massive support level just waiting to happen, especially now that the 50-We EMA is coming into the picture. If we can break above the top of the candlestick for the week, it’s likely that we could go looking to the 1.17 level, where the 200-We EMA is coming.
EUR/GBP
The euro initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but it looks like the 0.85 level is going to continue to be a major resistance barrier. That’s an area where we have seen a lot of support in the past, so it does suggest that perhaps there could be a bit of “market memory” coming into the picture. That being said, the EUR/GBP market ended up forming a bit of a shooting star, so I think we are ready to drop at this point, perhaps looking to the 0.84 level underneath. In general, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy.
USD/CAD
The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading week against the Canadian dollar (USD/CAD exchange rate), but it is worth noting that the 1.36 level remains very supported, with the 50-We EMA sitting just below there to show signs of life. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to bounce around between the 1.36 level, and the 1.38 level above there. Ultimately, this is a pair that also got a bit of a boost due to the fact that the unemployment figures in the United States were positive, while the Canadian employment numbers were weak.
CAC 40
The Parisian index has been all over the place during the week, but the €7500 level continues to offer massive support, and this past week has seen quite a strange turnaround. At this point, it looks like we are going to continue to try to rally at this point, and if we can break above the top of the candlestick for the week, it opens up the possibility of Paris driving toward the €7900 level. Anything above there would obviously be very bullish, opening up the possibility of a move to the €8300 level. Conversely, if we break down below the €7450 level, then we could drop from there.
EUR/JPY
The Euro has rallied rather significantly during the course of the trading week against the Japanese yen, as we are now above the ¥175 level. If we do pull back from here, I think there are plenty of buyers willing to come in and take advantage of “cheap euros”, as the interest rate differential between the 2 currencies will continue to be quite wide. Remember, traders get paid to hang on to this pair and therefore you should be looking for value to take advantage of.
USD/NOK
The US dollar has been very range bound for the last 5 weeks against the Norwegian krone, and I think that will continue to be the case going forward. However, if we can break above the 10.75 level, it’s likely that we could continue to go much higher. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 10.40 krone level, then we could see the market continue to drop toward the 10 NOK level.
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