Potential signal
- I am a buyer of this pair above 18 MXN, with a stop loss at 17.63 pesos.
- I would be aiming for 18.75 pesos.
In my daily analysis of the dollar against the peso, it's easy to see that there is still a lot of volatility happening around the 50-day EMA. That being said, this is a market that is going to pay close attention to risk appetite as the Mexican peso is considered to be a riskier asset.
Furthermore, we'll be paying attention to interest rates in the United States as rising interest rates, of course, make the U.S. dollar much more attractive. In general, this is a scenario that if we can break above the 18 pesos level, it's likely that we could continue to go higher, perhaps reaching the 18.75 Mexican pesos level. Underneath the current area right now we have a lot of support at the 17.5 pesos level. That is an area that I think will be difficult to break below. In general, I think this is a market that continues to bounce around quite significantly.
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The Importance of the 50-Day EMA
The 50-day EMA of course is an indicator that a lot of people will pay close attention to. And even if we broke down below here, right around that 17.50 level, we have the 200 day EMA which obviously is even more important whether or not this continues to the upside we'll have to wait and see but clearly over the last couple of days we had rallied and then gave back some of the gains, but it looks like Thursday might actually stick with the bullish pressure and that could send the U.S. dollar much higher against the Mexican peso. Because of this, I believe that people will be watching for more momentum to enter the fray here.
The pair does tend to be very noisy, as the pair can be thin at times. Furthermore, the market is highly influenced by remittances by Mexican nationals in the United States, which means that the US economy struggling ironically favors the USD over the Peso. This is a unique pair, but one that actually can show a lot of momentum at times.
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