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USD/CNH Forecast: Chinese Yuan Continues to Suffer at the Hands of the US Dollar

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
  • The US dollar initially pulled back against the Chinese Yuan, only to turn around and show signs of strength again.
  • As we continue to threaten the 7.3 level, this is an area that I think a lot of people will be paying close attention to in the fact that we have rocked back and forth does suggest that perhaps it is going to be a barrier that’s a bit difficult to overtake.

USD/CNH Forecast Today - 01/07: Yuan Suffers vs USD (Chart)

However, it’s obvious that Asian currencies in general are on the back foot, and the Chinese Yuan will be any different. After all, the Chinese Yuan isn’t necessarily the easiest to convert into the open markets, although it’s probably worth noting that it is not a free-flowing currency either.

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Technical Analysis

The pair has been rallying for some time and I don’t think that changes anytime soon. If we do pull back from here, it makes a certain amount of sense that we would see the 50-Day EMA offer support, but that is all the way down at the 7.25 level. Between here and there, I would anticipate a bit of a bounce, and I think that bounce comes into the picture to offer plenty of value for traders willing to get involved. If we can break above the 7.33 level, then I think the market goes looking to the 7.35 level. The market will continue to be noisy, but all things being equal this has a feel of a “buy on the dips” type of market.

In general, I remain bullish of this market, but I also recognize that it does tend to be very choppy, and the People’s Bank of China is heavily influential as it will have a “reference rate” that the currency is allowed to float. Because of this, I think you have to be cautious, but right now it certainly looks like traders are willing to jump in and buy greenbacks, so I think any pullback at this juncture is going to end up being a nice buying opportunity.

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Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
 

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