Potential signal:
- I am a buyer of this pair on a daily close above the 361.75 level.
- I would have a stop of 360, and aim for the 371 region.
- In my daily U.S. dollar / Hungarian forint analysis, I have come across the idea that we are bouncing from the crucial 200 day EMA, which of course is an indicator that a lot of people will be paying attention to. Retail sales in the United States came out hotter than anticipated.
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So, it does make a lot of sense that the US dollar has strengthened, and we are getting close to several technically supportive areas that have to be paid close attention to. With this, if we can break above the top of the candlestick for the session on Tuesday, then I think we probably have more of a recovery ahead. Remember, this pair does not move in a vacuum, and therefore you need to understand what the actual risk on, risk off type of a situation is out there. After all, if everybody's running for safety then they are running for the dollar. Ironically, this is one of those few pairs where the dollar pays less. Long term interest rates in Hungary at the moment are right around 6.8%, so it is running a little hotter. So that may continue to put a little bit of downward pressure.
Global Growth Concerns, as Well as Other Pressures
But if we continue to see a lot of concerns about global growth and the US dollar strengthening in general, that obviously will translate into this pair bouncing. For what it's worth, we have been gradually trying to grind higher, but ran into a lot of resistance above and the 373 level. If we were to break that, obviously it would be very bullish. Underneath I see the 355 level has massive support. We are closer to support than resistance. So, I am at least thinking to the upside, but I need to see some follow through.
Keep in in mind that this US dollar could be lifted by the concerns about geopolitics worldwide, as well as the overall uncertainty involving the Hungarians and the EU in general.
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