- In my daily USD/SEK analysis, it’s easy to see that the market has been very volatile, as we initially plunged during the trading session, only to turn around and show signs of life.
- With that being said, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as we are trading just below the crucial 50-Day EMA, and perhaps even the 200-Day EMA.
- The 10.50 level is an area that a lot of traders have been paying attention to, and I think it will continue to be a little bit of a magnet for price.
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Interest Rates
A lot of what we are seeing in the Forex markets right now are based around what’s going on in the bond markets, and of course we have seen interest rates plunged in the United States during the trading session on Thursday as the Consumer Price Index numbers were much lower than anticipated. All things being equal, that does make the US dollar less attractive but it is worth noting that we did turn around by the end of the day to end up forming a hammer yet again. The question at this point is going to be whether or not the US dollar can pick up any type of momentum, and climb higher?
If we were to break down below the 10.25 level, then the market could really unravel, perhaps going down to the 10 level. That would take a certain amount of negativity, and it would probably also see the US dollar getting hammered elsewhere. It’s probably worth noting that the Bank of Japan intervened during the CPI reaction, causing more chaos and who knows what kind of a knock on noise.
I think you continue to look at this through the prism of a market that is somewhat sideways, but keep in mind that the US dollar tends to move in the same direction against most currencies, so pay attention to the US Dollar Index, and of course the EUR/USD pair to give you little bit of a heads up as to where we may go.
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