In trading this morning the USD/SGD is around the 1.35000 vicinity with fast trading being seen as financial institutions brace for a rather critical week with plenty of impetus ready to emerge.
- As of this writing the USD/SGD currency pair is trading near the 1.35010 mark, as financial institutions brace for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to speak before the U.S Senate today.
- Economic data from the U.S in the past week continued to come in weaker than expected.
- However, the U.S also celebrated the Independence Day holiday which limited trading volumes. Nevertheless the USD/SGD did create a bearish trend and has sustained important lower depths early this week.
Speculators no doubt will see the importance of the 1.35000 level which is looking at them directly. Psychologically this level has proven important over the long-term as the USD/SGD traverses within sight of the mark based upon behavioral sentiment. A look at a one year chart of the USD/SGD clearly shows the 1.35000 level as a technical middle ground. The question now is if enough weaker USD centric optimism will begin to take the USD/SGD lower and sustain depths as sentiment shifts.
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1.35000 USD/SGD and Speculative Notions
On the 28th of June the USD/SGD climbed to within sight of the 1.36000 ratio, but has really built up downwards velocity since the 3rd of July when the currency pair was around the 1.35795 mark. The ability of the USD/SGD to create lower moves since the day before the U.S holiday, and not suffer stiff reversals higher may indicate a shift of behavioral sentiment is taking place. Economic data which has been getting worse in the States may have convinced financial institutions that the Fed will be able to become more dovish sooner rather than later.
However, Jerome Powell is unlikely to give away his monetary policy sentiment today as he speaks. He will likely remain cautious about the U.S Fed’s outlook. Yet, if he does address the notion that GDP is falling and there are signs inflation is eroding this may provide more impetus to those who are selling, but traders need to be cautious, because the 1.35000 level has been traversed and tested long-term for a reason.
Lack of Clarity and Mixed Data with Murky Rhetoric
Traders will certainly test technical ranges before Powell speaks today, but the wagers will likely remain technically quick firing positions trying to take advantage of the give and take from the USD/SGD within Forex.
- However, the USD/SGD will react with a wave that expands the trading range as Powell speaks.
- If financial institutions start to believe Powell is still playing a wait and see game, large players may simply continue to test the known support and resistance levels which will set the table for more talk from Powell tomorrow, and inflation data to come on Thursday and Friday.
- The movement lower in the USD/SGD recently is a sign many are leaning towards a weaker USD, but they will want evidence in the near-term their insights are correct.
Singapore Dollar Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 1.35050
Current Support: 1.34985
High Target: 1.35225
Low Target: 1.34750
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